Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 104,004
2 South Dakota 90,954
3 Iowa 73,099
4 Wisconsin 70,714
5 Nebraska 66,380
6 Utah 61,056
7 Montana 58,249
8 Wyoming 57,545
9 Illinois 57,436
10 Idaho 57,165
11 Minnesota 56,532
12 Kansas 55,067
13 Tennessee 53,653
14 Rhode Island 53,544
15 Arkansas 52,143
16 Mississippi 51,499
17 Missouri 51,321
18 Alabama 50,890
19 Indiana 50,755
20 Louisiana 49,994
21 Oklahoma 49,973
22 Nevada 49,583
23 Florida 46,527
24 New Mexico 46,305
25 Arizona 44,931
26 Alaska 44,299
27 Texas 43,528
28 Georgia 42,790
29 South Carolina 42,241
30 Kentucky 41,017
31 Colorado 40,721
32 Michigan 38,887
33 New Jersey 38,181
34 Delaware 36,614
35 Ohio 36,021
36 North Carolina 34,798
37 New York 33,554
38 Connecticut 32,899
39 Maryland 32,868
40 Massachusetts 32,808
41 California 31,311
42 District of Columbia 30,537
43 Pennsylvania 28,665
44 Virginia 27,864
45 Puerto Rico 26,978
46 West Virginia 26,695
47 Washington 22,610
48 Oregon 17,889
49 New Hampshire 15,440
50 Hawaii 12,717
51 Maine 8,746
52 Vermont 6,686

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Minnesota 1,404
2 North Dakota 883
3 Wyoming 882
4 Rhode Island 871
5 Oklahoma 857
6 New Mexico 833
7 Tennessee 825
8 South Dakota 822
9 Alaska 817
10 Montana 767
11 Nebraska 748
12 Indiana 715
13 Wisconsin 696
14 Colorado 692
15 Michigan 645
16 Kentucky 639
17 Ohio 606
18 Nevada 603
19 Kansas 593
20 Utah 592
21 Iowa 588
22 Missouri 583
23 Illinois 570
24 Idaho 561
25 Mississippi 546
26 West Virginia 520
27 Delaware 507
28 Pennsylvania 458
29 Alabama 452
30 Connecticut 440
31 New Hampshire 412
32 Arkansas 406
33 New Jersey 406
34 Texas 385
35 Arizona 382
36 California 372
37 Oregon 365
38 New York 335
39 Massachusetts 332
40 Florida 315
41 Washington 304
42 Maryland 303
43 North Carolina 295
44 District of Columbia 290
45 Virginia 288
46 South Carolina 282
47 Georgia 200
48 Puerto Rico 194
49 Louisiana 129
50 Maine 122
51 Vermont 89
52 Hawaii 49

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,913
2 New York 1,755
3 Massachusetts 1,559
4 Connecticut 1,408
5 Louisiana 1,381
6 Rhode Island 1,296
7 Mississippi 1,279
8 North Dakota 1,224
9 South Dakota 1,069
10 Illinois 1,027
11 District of Columbia 963
12 Michigan 957
13 Arizona 912
14 Georgia 866
15 Florida 865
16 Indiana 850
17 South Carolina 850
18 Arkansas 829
19 Pennsylvania 815
20 Delaware 792
21 Iowa 768
22 Maryland 767
23 Texas 757
24 New Mexico 747
25 Alabama 729
26 Nevada 697
27 Tennessee 665
28 Missouri 648
29 Minnesota 647
30 Montana 639
31 Wisconsin 601
32 Ohio 549
33 Nebraska 537
34 Kansas 535
35 Colorado 531
36 Idaho 524
37 North Carolina 504
38 California 486
39 Virginia 475
40 Kentucky 462
41 Oklahoma 440
42 West Virginia 410
43 New Hampshire 386
44 Washington 380
45 Wyoming 371
46 Puerto Rico 346
47 Utah 271
48 Oregon 217
49 Hawaii 170
50 Alaska 157
51 Maine 144
52 Vermont 110

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 South Dakota 21
2 New Mexico 10
3 North Dakota 10
4 Illinois 8
5 Montana 8
6 Rhode Island 8
7 Arkansas 7
8 Michigan 7
9 Indiana 6
10 Iowa 6
11 Minnesota 6
12 Connecticut 5
13 Massachusetts 5
14 Idaho 4
15 Kentucky 4
16 Mississippi 4
17 Nebraska 4
18 Nevada 4
19 West Virginia 4
20 Colorado 3
21 Delaware 3
22 Florida 3
23 Kansas 3
24 Maryland 3
25 Oklahoma 3
26 Pennsylvania 3
27 Puerto Rico 3
28 Tennessee 3
29 Wisconsin 3
30 Arizona 2
31 Georgia 2
32 Louisiana 2
33 Missouri 2
34 New Hampshire 2
35 New York 2
36 Ohio 2
37 Oregon 2
38 South Carolina 2
39 Texas 2
40 Utah 2
41 Washington 2
42 District of Columbia 1
43 New Jersey 1
44 North Carolina 1
45 Vermont 1
46 Alabama 0
47 Alaska 0
48 California 0
49 Hawaii 0
50 Maine 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 204,422 1 99
Norton Kansas 203,693 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 197,508 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 192,661 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 189,189 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 66,714 519 83
Richland South Carolina 49,178 1207 61
York South Carolina 34,846 2041 35
Orange California 25,456 2519 19
Pierce Washington 20,170 2723 13

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 5,747 3 99
Hancock Georgia 5,439 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 5 99
Richland South Carolina 726 1266 59
Davidson Tennessee 606 1521 51
Orange California 497 1789 43
York South Carolina 484 1831 41
Pierce Washington 351 2201 29

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons